Will Israel Attack Iran?

There are mounting signs that Israel is indeed gearing up for a possible attack in the near future.  A major issue seems to be the growing split with the Obama administration, which seems committed to arriving at a diplomatic solution and whose foreign policy approach so far lies in stark contrast to Bush’s hawkishness.

On Thursday, the US State Department rejected a proposal by Iran to engage in international talks regarding its nuclear program.  Israel has been increasingly impatient with the US’s approach to Iran – Obama will wait until the end of the year to decide whether to offer the negotiation track, or increase sanctions. Many in Israel, who feel that their immediate security concerns are gravely threatened, view this as political drag footing.  AIPAC has also been making the rounds in Washington, lining up support to put pressure on Obama. According to a Senate aide quoted in a TPMCafe article by M.J. Rosenberg, “For AIPAC, it's all Iran, all the time. I don't think they have come in about any other issue for a year or two.”

Russia’s role has been spotlighted recently.  The recent disappearance and reappearance of a Russian cargo ship in the Arctic Sea was rumored to be carrying anti-aircraft missiles bound for Iran.  It is also believed the ship was intercepted by the Moussad before it could complete the transaction with Iran.  This could all be dismissed as idle speculation, yet the very surprising secret visit to Moscow last week by Prime Minister Netanyahu seems to confirm something is brewing.  It appears he chartered a private jet to take him for a meeting with Russian officials to possibly dissuade them from selling those missiles to Iran, as well as inform them of a potential attack.

There is an excellent article in Slate, written in April, that not only foreshadows some of these recent rumblings, but also offers a very good analysis as to why an attack on Iran falls within Israel’s rational interests. And for all of you political theory fans, can be explained using plain old-fashioned balance of power concepts.  What is does offer up, is the argument that Israel’s current political ideology believes that the way to insure the establishment of a Palestinian state is to knock out Iran’s nuclear program.  In essence, the ability to offer up territory and the security threats that come with this would be mitigated by an Israel that appears militarily strong.  In return, the Middle East with an established Palestinian state and a weakened Iran would see some happy neighbors – Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan to Lebanon.
It’s a complicated mess, and one that the US needs to keep its eye on.  What are YOUR thoughts?