Can Turkey and Armenia Be Friends?

It came as a surprise to many when Armenia and Turkey announced today that they would establish diplomatic ties after decades of extreme animosity towards one another.  Yet talks have been ongoing for the past year, most notably with negotiations in Switzerland.  With the current economic climate, it is to both countries advantage to advance their political relationship.  Turkey remains committed to winning membership into the EU, and without some resolution of the Armenia situation, its chances were slim of gaining admittance. (Although the Cypriot issue remains as another major roadblock.  There is a good blog post by Tony Barber in the Financial Times, regarding some of Turkey's EU ascension issues.)

In addition, Turkey seems very interested in increasing its stature in the region, and by currying favor with the Russians  - who are the main source of military and economic aid to Armenia – as well as the US and EU, Turkey is attempting to smooth the road for numerous deals involving energy, security and political advantage.  Both countries seem aware that securing the Caucasus  - or at least appearing to be working towards that end – is beneficial for their respective goals.

Yet, will much of anything truly progress after this announcement?  There still remains enormous bitterness over the lack of acknowledgment by Turkey over its refusal to admit it committed acts of genocide back in 1915.  Diplomatic will notwithstanding, it will be interesting to see if the people of Armenia will tolerate the opening of borders without a formal declaration of apology from Turkey.  There is also a sizable Armenian population residing in the US, which will likely be vocal in their protests.  In addition, the final steps of establishing diplomatic ties lie with parliamentary ratification, which could easily become mired down with opposition and political maneuverings. "I don't see it as a breakthrough, because as long as everything is tied to parliamentary approval ... you can always go back to square one," said Nigar Goksel, an Istanbul-based analyst with the European Stability Initiative, who has closely followed recent diplomacy between Yerevan and Ankara.

The two governments set a six week deadline for consultations within their respective parliaments before beginning the process of ratification.  Interestingly enough, this deadline expires very close to a planned October visit by Armenia's president, Serge Sakisian, to Turkey to attend a World Cup qualifying match.  Can football diplomacy succeed?  Stay tuned...